WTI Crude

This is in continuation of the WTI crude analysis done on 30/4/2015 (here) and on 16/8/2015 (here). Prices have moved as foreseen. Now going forward the chart is analyzed, since the medium term top made at around 114 in May 2011. The two probable wave counts are shown on the weekly chart (chart 1) in red and blue. 

Short term the trend shown on the 5 hour chart (chart 2) seems to have turned bullish and will likely remain so unless any bearish counts start to develop. 

Long term there are several possible counts which can be taken separately. 

The main thing here is that the short term bottom seems to have formed at the current low of 37.75. This  may turn out be a medium and even long term bottom, as the move up develops. In view of this long positions taken in oil/ oil stocks on any dips going forward provide a good risk/reward ratio.

 chart 1

chart 2

AUD vs USD and CNY

I had done the following analysis on 15th August 2015, but couldn't post. Posting it now for future reference. As of today the waves are proceeding as shown on the charts and there is no change in the analysis.

The charts below show the trend lines and the possible Elliott wave counts for AUD/USD and AUD/CNY. The Elliott wave counts correspond to the trend completing at the trend line support. It is possible that the trend lines are broken in a false breakdown, before the trend finally reverses. 

Looking at the charts, it is possible that the pairs may be completing a long term downtrend and likely to reverse. If this analysis is correct it has bullish implications for commodities and possibly oil.

AUD/USD Monthly - Trend Line and Elliot Wave counts

AUD/USD Daily -  Elliot Wave counts for wave 5 in red above

AUD/CNY Weekly - Trend Line and Elliot Wave counts

 AUD/CNY Daily -  Elliot Wave counts for wave 5 in red above

 

Australian Index - ASX200

This is in continuation of the analysis done on 24/3/2015 for AORD, the sister index of ASX200 (here). There, at the top made at around 6000, the Elliott wave counts were showing a great possibilbity of a major correction. Which has what has  happened. Now going forward, there are a multiple ways to count the move from the bottom made in Mar 2009. There are 3 possibilities shown on the chart

• Mid term bullish in red (this will likely postpone a major bear market crash to another day/year).
• Mid and long term extremely bullish in blue
• Bearish in dark green 

 All seem equally possible until the ongoing correction is confirmed complete. The trend line in red and the channel in blue may also help decide the future move.

As of today, index had taken support at 50% retracement at the red line. Next support lies between 4600-4650 at the blue channel support.

USD/JPY

 This post is in continuation of the analysis of USD/JPY done on 16/8/2015 (here). Going forward the two possibilities are shown on the chart in blue and red lines. There is a little change in the possible wave counts, since that last post, as shown in the chart below. The move since the top made in June looks like an "abc" correction (shown in small green letters). One more move to the upside above the top made in June looks possible. This wave count correlates with the wave count I have for Nikkei, which I will try and publish next. However, it is equally likely that this is just the start of the correction as shown by blue line. In either case USD/JPY seems to be in extended 5th wave and will likely correct to around 100.

Saudi Index - Tadawul (TASI)

The weekly chart of TASI, Dubai Index may be forming a cup and handle pattern. However, as prices have not yet crossed the rim of the cup, it is still incomplete.

The Elliott wave counts shown on the chart below support the cup and handle breakout eventually. There is a bearish possibility shown in light green. But until proven otherwise, bullish count is my preferred count. The impulse wave (i) is what makes me prefer the bullish count.

USD/JPY

 This post is in continuation of the analysis of USD/JPY done on 16/2/2015. As postulated then, there is a likelihood that USD/JPY is in an extended 5th wave since Sep-Oct 2013. This probability is still valid. The chart below shows the Elliott wave counts. I have not shown the minor counts for the blue wave v. Wave v (blue) and hence wave 5 (red) may already be complete in June or USD/JPY may be in the final leg of completing it. The purpose of this blog is to recognize the current trend and any possible change in the trend. And from that perspective there is a likelihood that the present uptrend is nearing completion. If this indeed is the extended fifth than the correction would be fast and deep. 

Oil - long term trend line

In this post is shown long term trend lines for Crude Oil and some Major Oil companies traded on NYSE.  It is interesting to see that many of these are flirting with the lower trend line supports. If the support provided by the trend lines are not decisively broken, it is likely that a turn around in prices is around the corner.

The below given monthly chart of WTI crude shows that crude just broke below its long term trend line. This may quite likely turn out to be a false break out. If it indeed is a false breakout prices need to very quickly rise back to be within the trend line.

WTI Crude

 Following are long term charts of some of the US Oil Major companies.

Chevron

Chevron is just touching its Long term trend line in blue. In vase it further falls below this, the longer term trend line support (red) comes somewhere near 75.

 Chevron

Exxon Mobile

The long term trend line support for Exxon Mobile comes at around 70.

Exxon Mobile

Halliburton

Halliburton has taken support at the blue trend line and has bounced back up from it.

 Halliburton

 Conoco Phillipe

Like Exxon Mobile, Conoco Phillipe is also not at its support at the trend line. But it is at 61.8% retracement level of the move it made from the bottom in 2009 till the July 2014 top.

COP

Royal Dutch Shell

Following is the chart for RDSa PLC (traded on NYSE). Last time in 2009  when it broke below the long term trend line, it quickly came back up to resume the up trend.

RDSa (PLC)

Gold - short term (daily timeframe)

The following is the daily chart of gold which has the probable Elliott wave count since the swing high of 1228 made on 18th May 2015. Looks like that prices may be consolidating in wave 4 triangle. Once wave 4 completes prices likely to move down one more time to complete the 5 waves. 

 
The likely targets for wave 5 can be arrived at only after the completion of wave 4.

Old Analysis (24/7/2015) - Gold Elliott Wave Analysis – Weekly Time frame

The following charts show two possible counts for the Gold’s impulse down move since September 2011. These two options line up well with the options shown for GDX. The difference being that what is the first preferred count for GDX is the second preferred count here and vice-verse. Like in case of GDX any 5 wave down move (daily time frame) may turn out to be final 5th. Positions may be taken upon completion of 5 wave down move with caution.

 

Chart 1

Chart 2

Old Analysis (24/7/2015) - GDX Elliott Wave Analysis

Following is the weekly chart of GDX since septemeber 2011. Since then, the ETF looks like, it is going down in 5 wave impulse pattern (this 5 wave may be wave C of larger corrective structure). The current down move, since around USD 21, may be the final 5th of 5th or it may be the 3rd of 5th (shown in green). Also an impulse move can keep on extending. But, at the same time, any 5 wave move down may turn out to be the last. Hence, It may be good idea to open some long positions at the completion of any 5 wave down move (time frame daily). If the up move afterwards turns out be corrective, then exit those long positions taken earlier.

Old Analysis (26/6/2015) - WTI Crude

The last post on WTI crude dated 30 April 2015 had both long and short term probable Elliott wave counts. This post analyzes the move from the lows of 44 till now. Looks like prices are about to complete a 5 wave up move. Once e of wave v complete prices may start to correct. The likely targets to be estimated once the correction start to unfold.

5 Hourly chart as on 25 June 2015

Old Analysis (22/6/2015) - NSE Nifty Leading Diagonal

The correction in Nifty that stared at the high of 9120 seems to have completed its first leg at 7940. The wave pattern of this down move looks like a leading diagonal (chart 1). Also this  has a probable impulsive wave count (chart 2). If this is so, then any rally upwards may only be a retracement and the nifty may continue lower after it has retraced the move from 9120 to 7940.

chart 1

chart 2

Likely targets

The way the Nifty has moved in last 3-4 months has created a possibility of a very bearish out look. So the current move up should be carefully followed. One may go long here, but if the move up happens as an A-B-C corrective pattern, then these positions should be closed. The likely targets to watch out for are

38.2% retracement – around 8390

50% retracement – around 8530

61.8% retracement – around 8665

Alternate possibility

There is an alternate bullish count. As per this count Nifty has just completed wave 4 of the 5 wave structure started in December 2011. If so Nifty is likely to make a new all time high before starting a significant correction either price wise or time wise.

Conclusion

In either case Nifty is likely to start a significant correction upon the completion of the current up move started at 7940. It may or may not make a new all time high. It would be good idea to start booking profit/ stop any new purchase at the first hint that the rally is complete.

Old Analysis (30/4/2015) - WTI Crude Oil Futures

The following is the Monthly chart of WTI Crude Oil Futures price. The analysis is done for the dowtrend starting from the Jul 2008 top made at 147.

 

The weekly chart shows the probable wave counts dowtrend from the Apr/ May 2011 top made around 116. The main counts are in red and blue and the alternate count is in Green.

The five hourly chart shows the upmove since the bottom made around 44.

Conclusion

The upmove that started at 44 on 18th March looks impulsive in nature. This looks like a C wave of larger degree 4th wave (of wave C) or the first wave of the larger degree (C) wave. In either case once all the five waves of this 5 wave upmove is complete, there should be a deep correction, which would be a good opportunity to buy oil and related stocks. Also in view of the uncertainity in regards to whether the oil has made a bottom at 44, it is best to sell any current holdings upon completion of this 5 wave upmove, with a view to buy on correction.

Old Analysis (14/4/2015) - WPL - Hourly

The chart below shows the probable wave counts for WPL in short term. The completion of 5 waves up from the most recent low of just below 34, may be a good point to book a profit and wait for a correction.

Old Analysis (13/4/2015) - An Australian Stock - Woodside Petroleum (WPL)

The weekly chart shows WPL may be in a triangle correction.

On the daily chart, there is a possibility that the prices may go down one more time to touch the lower trend line before resuming the uptrend.

Old Analysis (1/4/2015) - GoPro - An U.S. Stock

The following daily chart of Gopro shows that it may have formed a medium term bottom at 37 in March. 

There appears to be a five wave down move from the top made at around 98 in October 2014. A five wave move can be either the first or fifth wave of an impulse or an A or C wave of a corrective move. Looking at the structure from June (IPO) to October, I am leaning towards this down move as being either 1 or A. But in any case if the 5 wave down move has completed at 37 then the down move from 98 to 37 is likely to be retraced.

RSI has has also broken out from the downward sloping trend line.

The hourly chart below shows the up move from 37 in more detail. 

 

Looks like 1st move to the upside is about to complete. Following this there may be a correction to the downside which will be a retracement of this upmove. This correction may be a very good opportunity to go long in GoPro for medium term.  

The likely targets are 

38.2% retracement - 60
50% retracement - 67
61.8% retracement - 75 

Conclusion

It appears that though GoPro may be in a longer term down trend, it may formed a bottom at 37 for medium term. After moving lower in short term, there is a probability it may move to  60/67/75.   

Old Analysis (24/3/2015) - Australian Index - All Ordinaries

Chart 1 is the weekly chart of AORD since 2011. The probable counts as per my analysis are as shown on the chart. As per this, it seems the rally that started in Aug 2011 may have just completed or may be near completion. If this is correct than AORD may be close to starting a correction. The extent of the correction will depend on where these five waves from August 2011 fit in the larger picture and will become clearer as the waves progress.

 chart 1

Also the monthly chart below shows that the prices may be touching a long term trend line.

 

chart 2

Conclusion

Looks like AORD is making an important top at these levels. Need to be very careful with long positions.

Old Analysis (21/3/2015) - Index - NSE Nifty - Rising Wedge?

It appears like NSE Nifty may be moving in a rising wedge pattern since August 2013, as shown in chart 1 below. Two lower trend lines are drawn, one in red and one blue with the arrows showing where the trend line contact the prices. Considering the positioning of this rising wedge and Elliott wave counts since August 2013, it may be on the verge of breaking out on the down side. There is a  possibility (though less likely) that the prices will move up again to touch the upper trend line before starting a meaningful correction.

chart1

Following is the long term monthly chart. In this also the prices are now touching a long term upper trend line.

 chart 2

Likely minimum target/s

The likely retracement levels (for rally from 5120 to 9120) and corresponding approximate targets are

23.6% retracement - 8200
38.2% retracement - 7600

Old Analysis (28/2/2015) - Indian Index - NSE Nifty 50

Chart 1 is the monthly chart of NSE Nifty. As is seen on the chart prices are now touching the upper trend line of the upward sloping channel drawn in red. The lower trend line of this red channel is drawn by connecting the 2009 bottom and the subsequent significant bottom/s in such a way that the prices don't fall below this trend line.

chart 1

The daily chart below (chart 2) shows very clear 5 wave impulse waves from the lows of August 2013. The 5th wave of this five wave impulse looks like further subdividing into five sub waves and may be forming an ending diagonal pattern. If we look at the Fibonacci ratios, wave 3 is about 1.61% extension of wave 1. 8900 is the 38.2% extension of wave 0-3. The whole rally from the lows of August 2013 may be very close to completion.

chart 2

Conclusion

NSE Nifty seems to be very close to starting a very significant correction. At the very least the correction can take the prices to about 8000. But this is a very optimistic outlook, there is a high probability of a deeper correction, since, major global indices also seem to be on the verge of a significant correction.

Old Analysis (25/2/2015) - Index - US SPX 500

Following is the weekly chart of US Index S&P 500. The chart shows the Elliott wave counts that look most probable to me at this stage. Analysis and likely targets are shown on the chart itself.

Following is the weekly chart of US 500 Futures Index analyzed on 16th Aug 2014 (the blog was not yet started then). So far there is no change in the way the wave counts are progressing.

Conclusion

Looks like US500 (S&P 500) may be in the wave v of 3. The first  likely target is around 2142 which is 38.12% extension 2-iii. The next is 2180 at which wave v will equal wave i. Targets would change if the wave extends.

Old Analysis (19/2/2015) - An Indian Equity - TATA Motors

Following (chart 1) is the weekly chart of TATA Motors. This chart has been following Elliott wave classic impulse pattern, since the bottom made in 2009. The stock completed wave 1 in  November 2010 and is in wave 3 since  September 2011. Now it appears that wave 3 is either complete at the recent high of 611 or is about to complete. This should be followed by a wave 4 correction.

chart 1

Just for reference below are some old charts that show how well TATA Motors is showing the bullish impulse waves. These are the weekly and monthly charts of TATA Motors (chart 2 and chart 3) that I had analyzed in Mar 2014. Till now it seems to be going beautifully on track.

chart 2

chart 4

Conclusion

If the above analysis is correct and TATA motors is about to complete the rally it has been in since 2011, that has implications for NSE Nifty. Since this stock has been one of the leaders for Nifty uptrend, any expected significant correction in this stock would mean a significant correction in Nifty.

Old Analysis (16/2/2015) - USD/JPY

This post is in continuation of the USD/JPY analysis published on 27th Jan 2015. As per the daily chart below, looks like the currency pair has completed wave iv of wave 5 since then.The prices seem to have come out of the contracting triangle to complete wave (i) of v of 5. It may also have just completed wave (ii) as shown.

 USD/JPY Daily chart as on 17th Feb 2015

The hourly chart below shows waves (i) and (ii) of v of 5 in more detail. 

USD/JPY Hourly chart as on 17th Feb 2015

Conclusion

If the above analysis and the analysis done on 27th Jan 2015 is correct, then the USD/JPY may be in final v of 5 waves (started since Oct 2011). The most likely target for completion of wave v at this stage is 125. This can change depending on how the waves progress from here. 

Old Analysis (2/2/2015) - USO - United States Oil Fund

The ETF United States Oil Fund tracks the WTI crude futures index. I have been following the chart of USO since December of last year. Chart 1 below is the weekly chart analyzed on 15th Dec 2014. I have not updated the chart as there is no material change on weekly time frame at this stage.

chart 1

The daily chart (chart 2 below), shows the progress of wave C down in more detail.

chart 2

Conclusion

If the above analysis works out as above, then it implies that we are very close to a bottom in USO. If we are indeed in wave 4 then the prices are likely to consolidate between 16.3 to around 20-21 (23.6% retracement of wave 3 comes at 20.8)  before the next downward leg towards 14-16 (161.8% of wave B comes to around 14.2).

Old Analysis (31/1/2015) - Gold in USD mapped to USD/JPY

Gold is the second security that I observe, is having a close correlation with USD/JPY (an inverse relation), since around October 2012. This is but logical. 

Interpretation

The Gold (in USD) is making bottoms which are mapping well with the tops in USD/JPY. However there is a lag between the formation of Gold tops vs USD/JPY bottoms.

 Conclusion

If the above mapping of Gold Vs USD/JPY is correct and the USD/JPY Elliott wave counts are correct, it may mean that one leg down for gold is still pending to complete the downward trend that started in September 2011.

Old Analysis (29/1/2015) - NSE Nifty mapped to USD/JPY

In my last post, i had posted the Elliott wave counts of USD/JPY currency pair. The reason to take up USD/JPY as the first for analysis was that I consider it to be a key chart which maps either directly or inversely with several other markets. The one market where I find the correlation quite uncanny is the NSE Nifty.

Before I proceed, I would like to say that the wave count as shown by me for USD/JPY, is not the only count possible. In fact it is quite a far fetched count at this stage. But I have reasons to believe in this wave count till proven otherwise. The main reason for this count is the occurrence of triangles, first from May to Sep 2013 and now recently from Nov 2014 to Jan 2015.  

Now on to NSE Nifty as it maps to USD/JPY. 

 

The chart is self explanatory. However a couple of points for consideration are

• The charts are mapped from October 2011 onwards
• The tops in NSE Nifty correspond very well with the tops in USD/JPY
• However the bottoms in NSE Nifty and USD/JPY don't exactly match. It can be seen that USD/JPY is making a bottom after the NSE Nifty has already formed a bottom and has started on the next leg up.
• The only time USD/JPY led the bottom formation was at the start of its upmove. The USD/JPY made a bottom in October 2011, followed by a bottom made by NSE Nifty in December 2011. 

Conclusion

 If the previous analysis of USD/JPY works out as projected that would mean that the last up leg of the USD/JPY is about to start/ started. By that token, if NSE Nifty continues to map with USD/JPY, it has also started it's last leg up. Going forward any five wave completion of up move (time frame - daily) in NSE Nifty should be a selling point. The next down turn may be volatile, if USD/JPY is indeed undergoing an extended 5th wave.. If the correction shows that the bull market is still in-tact then new positions may be taken.

Old analysis : Key chart - USD/JPY - Elliott wave analysis

I am taking USD/JPY currency pair as the first chart to be analyzed, because I think that since October 2011, many other world markets are correlating, either directly or inversely, with the moves in this currency pair. For those who are familiar with the basics of Elliott waves, the below chart shows the count as I see them now. This wave count may seem far fetched at this time, but I have reasons to believe in this count till proven otherwise. If that happens, the chart will have to reviewed.

What this chart shows is that 

• The USD/JPY bottomed in October 2011 and is in a 5   waves up move since then.
•  Wave 1 top was formed in March 2012.
•  Wave 3 top was formed in May 2013.
•  Wave 5 started in October 2013. This wave could have completed in December 2013 and would have then been a normal wave 5. But instead this wave 5 seems to been extending.
• Wave iii of this wave 5 completed in December 2014, and is now correcting (wave iv of 5).
•  The final wave v of  5 to start once IV completes (possibly somewhere around JPY 116).

Likely Targets

Assuming wave iv completes at JPY 116, the likely targets for wave v (and also Wave 5) are 
  38.2% projection - 124-125
  50% projection - 131
  61.8% projection - 141

Conclusion:

In case the above analysis proves to be correct it would  indicate that the ensuing correction would be sharp and the USD/JPY may come back to retest 100 (which seems like presumptuous at this time). This may have vast implications beyond just the currency pair USD/JPY. In my next post I will try to show the correlation between USD/JPY and other markets.