US SPX 500

Last time I did an analysis of this index was on 24/2/2015. There is a slight change in the possible wave counts since then. The long term possible wave counts are shown in the weekly chart below.

GDX

This is in continuation of an earlier post on GDX published here on (24/7/2015). It is possible that the downward trend is complete with a fifth wave failure in wave (v) of 5. However there also exists a bearish possibility that prices are consolidating in a triangle in wave (iv) position and once the triangle is complete, prices may go down one more time to complete wave 5. Caution is required close to the upper of the two trend lines shown below in red.

SSEC

This is in continuation of the post on 30/9/2015. There it was anticipated that SSEC has likely started an uptrend since the bottom made on 26th September and is likely to move up. That has what has happened. 

Going forward the probable Elliott wave counts are shown on the chart below. It appears like wave (iv) is complete and the prices are moving up in wave (v) to complete wave 1 or A. Subsequently the prices to resume the uptrend once again after a correction for wave 2 or wave B.

ASX 200

This is in continuation of the earlier analysis done for the index on  25th August (here) and 24th March (here). In the analysis done on 25th August 3 possibilities were  discussed. The price movements since then seem to favor option shown there in red.  

Following is the weekly chart which just indicates the likely direction of price movement. The basis for this assumption is discussed in more detail in daily and hourly charts.

The parts circled red in the daily chart below show the repetitive fractals observed in different time frames. If what happened in January, happens again now,  at the completion of ((ii)) below, we may get a fast move up for wave ((iii)).

Following hourly chart shows wave counts since the bottom made at 4918 on 30 September. The prices seem to be going up in 5 wave impulse waves and going down in 3 waves. This is the reason I am inclined towards thinking that ASX 200 made a major bottom on 30th September.

Conclusion: If the above analysis is correct, now is not the time to be short in Australian stocks, but to carefully take long positions with a view to hold till next signs of reversal.

Walmart

From the monthly chart, Walmart looks like to have completed a very long term uptrend at the top made in Jan 2015. Since the mid 1980's, the stock moved in a perfect Elliott wave pattern as shown below. 

Since Jan 2015, the stock looks to have entered bear market. Following is a five hour chart which shows probable count for an impulse wave down. The reason I prefer this count is because the market was most oversold (in daily chart, not shown here), during the blue wave ((iii)) down. If this count is correct the stock has at least 3 more legs to go down before any meaningful bounce/retracement.

EUR/USD

This post covers the short and long term possible Elliott wave counts for EUR/USD currency pair. 

The monthly chart below shows the possible long term bullish counts for the currency pair. If correct, EUR/USD might have made a long term bottom in March 2015.

 

The weekly chart shows the above wave D in detail. In this, wave c almost equals wave a, while wave b looks like it formed a running triangle.

Going further shorter term the daily chart shows the advance since the bottom made in March. Looks like it may have completed wave 1 of the new upward trend and now correcting in wave 2. There is a possibility that this wave 2 is also now complete or about to complete. Blue wave (c) is 1.38 times wave (a).

Copper - did it make a long term bottom in August?

The monthly chart of Copper shows that the prices are touching the lower trend line of the channel formed since the top made in May 2008. It is probable that copper may have made a long term bottom in August this year. If the counts shown in the following chart prove to be correct, then it would imply that

• Copper has just completed an irregular flat correction.
• The fifth of C is an extended fifth
• The fifth of fifth of C is also an  extended fifth

 If so this has highly bullish implication. The first target will be around 3.2 (purple ((ii))) and the second around 3.7 (green (ii)).

This count will be invalid if the price drops below the August lows.
 

 

WTI Crude

This post is in continuation of the earlier post on WTI crude posted on  15th September (here). The hypothesis that crude is forming a triangle in wave B of 2 still remains valid as long as the prices don't break out of the upper trend line decisively.

SSEC (Shanghai Composite) - Buy on dips?

In this post I am analyzing the hourly and daily charts for SSEC. It looks like SSEC has completed minor 5 waves from the bottom at 2851 on 26th August up to recent top at 3256 made on 9th September. The index is currently retracing this impulse move. If this analysis is correct, prices are likely to move up without breaking the low of 26th August.

On the daily chart below, it is possible that entire move starting from the top at 5178 on 12 June 2015 may have been completed at the recent low of 2851 (c is 61.8% of a).

Going ahead there are numerous possibilities. But short term it looks like SSEC is presenting a buying opportunity on dips.

WTI Crude

This is in continuation of the analysis done on 31/8/2015 (here). Now short term on hourly chart it looks like the prices are moving in a contracting triangle in wave b. Following the completion of wave b prices are likely to move down as part of wave c of blue wave ii/b, before proceeding up again. The contracting triangle as shown in red b is also seen to have formed in RSI momentum indicator. The likely target/s for completion of wave ii/b can only be arrived at once red wave b is complete. The current estimate is between 39-40.

 

NSE Nifty - Head and Shoulders Pattern

It seems like NSE Nifty may have broken down from the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern as seen on the chart below. Extreme care is warranted.

WTI Crude

This is in continuation of the WTI crude analysis done on 30/4/2015 (here) and on 16/8/2015 (here). Prices have moved as foreseen. Now going forward the chart is analyzed, since the medium term top made at around 114 in May 2011. The two probable wave counts are shown on the weekly chart (chart 1) in red and blue. 

Short term the trend shown on the 5 hour chart (chart 2) seems to have turned bullish and will likely remain so unless any bearish counts start to develop. 

Long term there are several possible counts which can be taken separately. 

The main thing here is that the short term bottom seems to have formed at the current low of 37.75. This  may turn out be a medium and even long term bottom, as the move up develops. In view of this long positions taken in oil/ oil stocks on any dips going forward provide a good risk/reward ratio.

 chart 1

chart 2

AUD vs USD and CNY

I had done the following analysis on 15th August 2015, but couldn't post. Posting it now for future reference. As of today the waves are proceeding as shown on the charts and there is no change in the analysis.

The charts below show the trend lines and the possible Elliott wave counts for AUD/USD and AUD/CNY. The Elliott wave counts correspond to the trend completing at the trend line support. It is possible that the trend lines are broken in a false breakdown, before the trend finally reverses. 

Looking at the charts, it is possible that the pairs may be completing a long term downtrend and likely to reverse. If this analysis is correct it has bullish implications for commodities and possibly oil.

AUD/USD Monthly - Trend Line and Elliot Wave counts

AUD/USD Daily -  Elliot Wave counts for wave 5 in red above

AUD/CNY Weekly - Trend Line and Elliot Wave counts

 AUD/CNY Daily -  Elliot Wave counts for wave 5 in red above

 

Australian Index - ASX200

This is in continuation of the analysis done on 24/3/2015 for AORD, the sister index of ASX200 (here). There, at the top made at around 6000, the Elliott wave counts were showing a great possibilbity of a major correction. Which has what has  happened. Now going forward, there are a multiple ways to count the move from the bottom made in Mar 2009. There are 3 possibilities shown on the chart

• Mid term bullish in red (this will likely postpone a major bear market crash to another day/year).
• Mid and long term extremely bullish in blue
• Bearish in dark green 

 All seem equally possible until the ongoing correction is confirmed complete. The trend line in red and the channel in blue may also help decide the future move.

As of today, index had taken support at 50% retracement at the red line. Next support lies between 4600-4650 at the blue channel support.

USD/JPY

 This post is in continuation of the analysis of USD/JPY done on 16/8/2015 (here). Going forward the two possibilities are shown on the chart in blue and red lines. There is a little change in the possible wave counts, since that last post, as shown in the chart below. The move since the top made in June looks like an "abc" correction (shown in small green letters). One more move to the upside above the top made in June looks possible. This wave count correlates with the wave count I have for Nikkei, which I will try and publish next. However, it is equally likely that this is just the start of the correction as shown by blue line. In either case USD/JPY seems to be in extended 5th wave and will likely correct to around 100.

Saudi Index - Tadawul (TASI)

The weekly chart of TASI, Dubai Index may be forming a cup and handle pattern. However, as prices have not yet crossed the rim of the cup, it is still incomplete.

The Elliott wave counts shown on the chart below support the cup and handle breakout eventually. There is a bearish possibility shown in light green. But until proven otherwise, bullish count is my preferred count. The impulse wave (i) is what makes me prefer the bullish count.

USD/JPY

 This post is in continuation of the analysis of USD/JPY done on 16/2/2015. As postulated then, there is a likelihood that USD/JPY is in an extended 5th wave since Sep-Oct 2013. This probability is still valid. The chart below shows the Elliott wave counts. I have not shown the minor counts for the blue wave v. Wave v (blue) and hence wave 5 (red) may already be complete in June or USD/JPY may be in the final leg of completing it. The purpose of this blog is to recognize the current trend and any possible change in the trend. And from that perspective there is a likelihood that the present uptrend is nearing completion. If this indeed is the extended fifth than the correction would be fast and deep. 

Oil - long term trend line

In this post is shown long term trend lines for Crude Oil and some Major Oil companies traded on NYSE.  It is interesting to see that many of these are flirting with the lower trend line supports. If the support provided by the trend lines are not decisively broken, it is likely that a turn around in prices is around the corner.

The below given monthly chart of WTI crude shows that crude just broke below its long term trend line. This may quite likely turn out to be a false break out. If it indeed is a false breakout prices need to very quickly rise back to be within the trend line.

WTI Crude

 Following are long term charts of some of the US Oil Major companies.

Chevron

Chevron is just touching its Long term trend line in blue. In vase it further falls below this, the longer term trend line support (red) comes somewhere near 75.

 Chevron

Exxon Mobile

The long term trend line support for Exxon Mobile comes at around 70.

Exxon Mobile

Halliburton

Halliburton has taken support at the blue trend line and has bounced back up from it.

 Halliburton

 Conoco Phillipe

Like Exxon Mobile, Conoco Phillipe is also not at its support at the trend line. But it is at 61.8% retracement level of the move it made from the bottom in 2009 till the July 2014 top.

COP

Royal Dutch Shell

Following is the chart for RDSa PLC (traded on NYSE). Last time in 2009  when it broke below the long term trend line, it quickly came back up to resume the up trend.

RDSa (PLC)

Gold - short term (daily timeframe)

The following is the daily chart of gold which has the probable Elliott wave count since the swing high of 1228 made on 18th May 2015. Looks like that prices may be consolidating in wave 4 triangle. Once wave 4 completes prices likely to move down one more time to complete the 5 waves. 

 
The likely targets for wave 5 can be arrived at only after the completion of wave 4.

Old Analysis (24/7/2015) - Gold Elliott Wave Analysis – Weekly Time frame

The following charts show two possible counts for the Gold’s impulse down move since September 2011. These two options line up well with the options shown for GDX. The difference being that what is the first preferred count for GDX is the second preferred count here and vice-verse. Like in case of GDX any 5 wave down move (daily time frame) may turn out to be final 5th. Positions may be taken upon completion of 5 wave down move with caution.

 

Chart 1

Chart 2

Old Analysis (24/7/2015) - GDX Elliott Wave Analysis

Following is the weekly chart of GDX since septemeber 2011. Since then, the ETF looks like, it is going down in 5 wave impulse pattern (this 5 wave may be wave C of larger corrective structure). The current down move, since around USD 21, may be the final 5th of 5th or it may be the 3rd of 5th (shown in green). Also an impulse move can keep on extending. But, at the same time, any 5 wave move down may turn out to be the last. Hence, It may be good idea to open some long positions at the completion of any 5 wave down move (time frame daily). If the up move afterwards turns out be corrective, then exit those long positions taken earlier.

Old Analysis (26/6/2015) - WTI Crude

The last post on WTI crude dated 30 April 2015 had both long and short term probable Elliott wave counts. This post analyzes the move from the lows of 44 till now. Looks like prices are about to complete a 5 wave up move. Once e of wave v complete prices may start to correct. The likely targets to be estimated once the correction start to unfold.

5 Hourly chart as on 25 June 2015

Old Analysis (22/6/2015) - NSE Nifty Leading Diagonal

The correction in Nifty that stared at the high of 9120 seems to have completed its first leg at 7940. The wave pattern of this down move looks like a leading diagonal (chart 1). Also this  has a probable impulsive wave count (chart 2). If this is so, then any rally upwards may only be a retracement and the nifty may continue lower after it has retraced the move from 9120 to 7940.

chart 1

chart 2

Likely targets

The way the Nifty has moved in last 3-4 months has created a possibility of a very bearish out look. So the current move up should be carefully followed. One may go long here, but if the move up happens as an A-B-C corrective pattern, then these positions should be closed. The likely targets to watch out for are

38.2% retracement – around 8390

50% retracement – around 8530

61.8% retracement – around 8665

Alternate possibility

There is an alternate bullish count. As per this count Nifty has just completed wave 4 of the 5 wave structure started in December 2011. If so Nifty is likely to make a new all time high before starting a significant correction either price wise or time wise.

Conclusion

In either case Nifty is likely to start a significant correction upon the completion of the current up move started at 7940. It may or may not make a new all time high. It would be good idea to start booking profit/ stop any new purchase at the first hint that the rally is complete.

Old Analysis (30/4/2015) - WTI Crude Oil Futures

The following is the Monthly chart of WTI Crude Oil Futures price. The analysis is done for the dowtrend starting from the Jul 2008 top made at 147.

 

The weekly chart shows the probable wave counts dowtrend from the Apr/ May 2011 top made around 116. The main counts are in red and blue and the alternate count is in Green.

The five hourly chart shows the upmove since the bottom made around 44.

Conclusion

The upmove that started at 44 on 18th March looks impulsive in nature. This looks like a C wave of larger degree 4th wave (of wave C) or the first wave of the larger degree (C) wave. In either case once all the five waves of this 5 wave upmove is complete, there should be a deep correction, which would be a good opportunity to buy oil and related stocks. Also in view of the uncertainity in regards to whether the oil has made a bottom at 44, it is best to sell any current holdings upon completion of this 5 wave upmove, with a view to buy on correction.

Old Analysis (14/4/2015) - WPL - Hourly

The chart below shows the probable wave counts for WPL in short term. The completion of 5 waves up from the most recent low of just below 34, may be a good point to book a profit and wait for a correction.

Old Analysis (13/4/2015) - An Australian Stock - Woodside Petroleum (WPL)

The weekly chart shows WPL may be in a triangle correction.

On the daily chart, there is a possibility that the prices may go down one more time to touch the lower trend line before resuming the uptrend.

Old Analysis (1/4/2015) - GoPro - An U.S. Stock

The following daily chart of Gopro shows that it may have formed a medium term bottom at 37 in March. 

There appears to be a five wave down move from the top made at around 98 in October 2014. A five wave move can be either the first or fifth wave of an impulse or an A or C wave of a corrective move. Looking at the structure from June (IPO) to October, I am leaning towards this down move as being either 1 or A. But in any case if the 5 wave down move has completed at 37 then the down move from 98 to 37 is likely to be retraced.

RSI has has also broken out from the downward sloping trend line.

The hourly chart below shows the up move from 37 in more detail. 

 

Looks like 1st move to the upside is about to complete. Following this there may be a correction to the downside which will be a retracement of this upmove. This correction may be a very good opportunity to go long in GoPro for medium term.  

The likely targets are 

38.2% retracement - 60
50% retracement - 67
61.8% retracement - 75 

Conclusion

It appears that though GoPro may be in a longer term down trend, it may formed a bottom at 37 for medium term. After moving lower in short term, there is a probability it may move to  60/67/75.   

Old Analysis (24/3/2015) - Australian Index - All Ordinaries

Chart 1 is the weekly chart of AORD since 2011. The probable counts as per my analysis are as shown on the chart. As per this, it seems the rally that started in Aug 2011 may have just completed or may be near completion. If this is correct than AORD may be close to starting a correction. The extent of the correction will depend on where these five waves from August 2011 fit in the larger picture and will become clearer as the waves progress.

 chart 1

Also the monthly chart below shows that the prices may be touching a long term trend line.

 

chart 2

Conclusion

Looks like AORD is making an important top at these levels. Need to be very careful with long positions.