ASX 200

This is in continuation of the earlier analysis done for the index on  25th August (here) and 24th March (here). In the analysis done on 25th August 3 possibilities were  discussed. The price movements since then seem to favor option shown there in red.  

Following is the weekly chart which just indicates the likely direction of price movement. The basis for this assumption is discussed in more detail in daily and hourly charts.

The parts circled red in the daily chart below show the repetitive fractals observed in different time frames. If what happened in January, happens again now,  at the completion of ((ii)) below, we may get a fast move up for wave ((iii)).

Following hourly chart shows wave counts since the bottom made at 4918 on 30 September. The prices seem to be going up in 5 wave impulse waves and going down in 3 waves. This is the reason I am inclined towards thinking that ASX 200 made a major bottom on 30th September.

Conclusion: If the above analysis is correct, now is not the time to be short in Australian stocks, but to carefully take long positions with a view to hold till next signs of reversal.