I
am taking USD/JPY currency pair as the first chart to be analyzed,
because I think that since October 2011, many other world markets are
correlating, either directly or inversely, with the moves in this
currency pair. For those who are familiar with the basics of Elliott
waves, the below chart shows the count as I see them now. This wave
count may seem far fetched at this time, but I have reasons to believe
in this count till proven otherwise. If that happens, the chart will
have to reviewed.
- The USD/JPY bottomed in October 2011 and is in a 5 waves up move since then.
- Wave 1 top was formed in March 2012.
- Wave 3 top was formed in May 2013.
- Wave 5 started in October 2013. This wave could have completed in December 2013 and would have then been a normal wave 5. But instead this wave 5 seems to been extending.
- Wave iii of this wave 5 completed in December 2014, and is now correcting (wave iv of 5).
- The final wave v of 5 to start once IV completes (possibly somewhere around JPY 116).
Likely Targets
Assuming wave iv completes at JPY 116, the likely targets for wave v (and also Wave 5) are
38.2% projection - 124-125
50% projection - 131
61.8% projection - 141
Conclusion:
In case the
above analysis proves to be correct it would indicate that the ensuing
correction would be sharp and the USD/JPY may come back to retest 100 (which
seems like presumptuous at this time). This may have vast implications beyond
just the currency pair USD/JPY. In my next post I will try to show the
correlation between USD/JPY and other markets.
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