Monday, 3 August 2015

Old analysis : Key chart - USD/JPY - Elliott wave analysis

I am taking USD/JPY currency pair as the first chart to be analyzed, because I think that since October 2011, many other world markets are correlating, either directly or inversely, with the moves in this currency pair. For those who are familiar with the basics of Elliott waves, the below chart shows the count as I see them now. This wave count may seem far fetched at this time, but I have reasons to believe in this count till proven otherwise. If that happens, the chart will have to reviewed.




What this chart shows is that 


  • The USD/JPY bottomed in October 2011 and is in a 5   waves up move since then.
  •  Wave 1 top was formed in March 2012.
  •  Wave 3 top was formed in May 2013.
  •  Wave 5 started in October 2013. This wave could have completed in December 2013 and would have then been a normal wave 5. But instead this wave 5 seems to been extending.
  • Wave iii of this wave 5 completed in December 2014, and is now correcting (wave iv of 5).
  •  The final wave v of  5 to start once IV completes (possibly somewhere around JPY 116).



Likely Targets

Assuming wave iv completes at JPY 116, the likely targets for wave v (and also Wave 5) are 
  38.2% projection - 124-125
  50% projection - 131
  61.8% projection - 141

Conclusion:

In case the above analysis proves to be correct it would  indicate that the ensuing correction would be sharp and the USD/JPY may come back to retest 100 (which seems like presumptuous at this time). This may have vast implications beyond just the currency pair USD/JPY. In my next post I will try to show the correlation between USD/JPY and other markets.

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