Old Analysis (21/3/2015) - Index - NSE Nifty - Rising Wedge?

It appears like NSE Nifty may be moving in a rising wedge pattern since August 2013, as shown in chart 1 below. Two lower trend lines are drawn, one in red and one blue with the arrows showing where the trend line contact the prices. Considering the positioning of this rising wedge and Elliott wave counts since August 2013, it may be on the verge of breaking out on the down side. There is a  possibility (though less likely) that the prices will move up again to touch the upper trend line before starting a meaningful correction.

chart1

Following is the long term monthly chart. In this also the prices are now touching a long term upper trend line.

 chart 2

Likely minimum target/s

The likely retracement levels (for rally from 5120 to 9120) and corresponding approximate targets are

23.6% retracement - 8200
38.2% retracement - 7600