Australian small cap index AXSO - at the confluence of 2 long term trendlines

 The chart below is self explanatory. Unless the index decisively breaks above this zone, there is a major risk of trend reversal.

NSE Nifty long term channel

 The   previous post on NSE Nifty was published on  13/07/2020 (link here). The view then was to be careful in market. A correction happened subsequently which turned out to be shallow and the uptrend resumed. 

 Now, as can be seen from the chart below, the index after trying to cross above long term channel is back within the channel. This calls for extreme caution w.r.t long positions in the market.

 

Kotak Mahindra Bank

 The chart of Kotak Mahindra Bank below is self explanatory and shows possibility of  a reversal. The direction for C shown on the chart is only for depiction and may take numerous paths. 

 The other less likely (in my view) possibility is that the stock has a minor correction and then rises to touch the trend line again before a major reversal.  

 

 

 

 

Disclaimer : The counts shown are possibility only and can not be construed as trading advice.

USD/INR - Elliott Wave counts

 The previous post on USD/INR was published on 7th Jan 2018 (Link here). As can be seen, I called a top there prematurely. What I still stand by from that post is that most likely wave 3 was completed in 2002 as shown. 5th waves can be quite deceptive and can prolong. Now the updated possible counts are shown on the weekly chart below.

 

 Disclaimer : The counts shown are possibility only and can not be construed as trading advice.

 

 

 

 

TSLA - Is this the way forward?

 The chart below is self explanatory and shows probable impulsive wave counts.

 

  

The other secondary possibility is that the light blue wave structure is the last extended wave 5 and the stock falls back to March 2020 lows of around 70. 

In either case, there is a correction imminent, which might first take the stock to around 400. That move, if it happens, likely will give a better idea of the move ahead.

S&P 500 - Trendlines

The below monthly chart captures the trend lines for the major trends of past few decades. It is observed that at the beginning of the trend, price is above the trend line. But once a trend is established, the price remain below the trend line. There are corrections along the way whenever the price rise up to touch the trend line.

This observation is important at present in S&P. As can be seen, index is trying to cross above the trend line TL4. Is it time for a correction? Or is it different this time? Calls for extreme caution.

If it is different this time and the index continues moving up above the trend line,  then in my opinion that would construe a bubble. In that case the question will be - weather to trade the bubble or watch from the sidelines?

 Now if it is not different this time then there are couple of options that I can think of (there sure are more. Market is after all not so predictable!!).

1) One option is that the Index completed the correction of previous trend (2008-2018) in March 2020 and has started a new up trend since then. If so going by the previous trends, this new trend will establish a new trend line. Just a hypothetical picture is shown below

 

 2) The other option is that the correction of the previous trend is still incomplete. A hypothetical picture for this is shown below

 

 

NSE Nifty - Time to be careful

This post is coming after the earlier post on NSE Nifty on (26/01/2020). As expected a correction started soon afterwards. The index broke the lower trend line of the  parallel channel, signifying that the whole 5 waves up move from 2009 bottom, may have completed as shown on the chart below. This may mean that the index is currently in correction mode, till a bullish scenario arises.

The following daily chart shows the move of NSE Nifty from March 2020 bottom in more detail.

The chart is showing that the index may be completing wave C of A-B-C corrective  up move and may be forming a rising wedge pattern. If correct, there is a likelihood of resumption of downward trend. However if index decisively breaks the rising wedge pattern to the upside, that would open up the bullish possibility. The downward red lines  with arrows are just depicting the direction and not actual target. In the rare case it is possible that the index breaks the low it formed in March 2020. But it's too early to say that.

Australian Index - AXJO

This post on Australian Index ASX 200 is coming after the earlier post on (21/08/2018) 

The following is the hourly chart of AXJO since the bottom made on 20th March 2020. Since then the index has risen up in 3 waves (a-b-c), with probably a triangle in wave b. If this hypothesis is correct then the index is at the risk of further downward correction. Any possibility of bullishness will open only if the index completes 5 waves to the upside (shown in blue). If it completes 5 waves to upside, then the retracement of that as shown in blue may present a buying opportunity. But until then the index may be risky.

Following is the weekly chart presenting the bearish possibilities in red and bullish in blue. But since so far the index has completed only 3 waves, since March bottom, it may be better to be cautious as the possibility of continuing bear market is very much there. 

Corrections can take numerous forms, therefore only general possible directions are shown on the chart and no elliott wave counts are shown.

Disclaimer :  The analysis presented here is for information and educational purposes only and doesn't constitute investment/ trading advice.

 

Amazing - AUDINR long term trend line

The currency pair AUDINR has been bouncing off a lower  trend line for last 33-34 years. Whats more, when it touches the trend line, that corresponds to global recession of some sort. It amazes me to no end that an obscure currency pair is reflecting the state of global economy so well..

Dow Jones Elliott Wave counts

Following Weekly, Daily and 15 minutes chart are self explanatory.

I. Elliott wave impulse structure that started in March 2009 looks to have completed in October 2018. The current price action may be wave C of the ongoing correction.
 

II. Below is the Correction in more detail.

 III. Close up and possible wave counts of possible wave C that started on 12 Feb 2020.

NSE Nifty

This post is coming after the earlier post on NSE Nifty on (15/2/2019). In that post a significant correction was anticipated. However the said head and shoulders pattern didn't materialize and the Index has gone on to make a prolonged topping pattern.

The chart below is self explanatory. 

i) The price is moving in a parallel channel since the bottom in 2008. It is now touching the upper channel.

ii) There has been a substantial increase in volume in past few months which may signify distribution. 

In conclusion Nifty may now see a significant correction. Where this would fit in Elliot wave counts will be clearer as the pattern develops. However both possibilities exist of it being either a intermediate degree (retrace of up move since bottom of 2016) or a primary degree correction (retrace of up move since bottom of 2008).

 

Index SOX - Could this breakout be a bull trap

Following is a monthly chart of Philadelphia semiconductor. As can be seen, prices broke out above the trend line in May 2019. However there is a possibility that the move up since November, 2008 bottom may be a 5 wave impulse of which the prices may currently be in wave (5). If this turns out right this breakout may prove to be a bull trap. However trend remains bullish till there are signs of reversal in shorter time frame. One reason for this line of thinking is a contracting triangle possibly formed at wave (4) position shown in weekly chart.

 

 MONTHLY CHART

 Weekly CHART

 

Interesting Fibonacci observation

An interesting Fibonacci occurrence is observed across several global indices. As can be seen on the charts of NSE Nifty (India), DAX (germany) and US2000 (US small cap index), the rise since the GFC bottom (made in 2008) is either 1.618 or 2.618 times the rise that occurred since the bottom made in 2002-03 till 2007 top. This may indicate that the ongoing correction is wave 4 and upon completion of this correction the global equities may have one more major leg up to complete wave 5.

NSE Nifty - Possibly forming right shoulder of bearish head and shoulders pattern

This post on NSE Nifty is coming after about one year. Refer  earlier post at NSE Nity - 6/02/18. 

NSE Nifty could be forming the right shoulder of  head and shoulders pattern in daily chart. However it is still a long way to go before confirmation. But the possibility calls for caution. What appears as the right shoulder in formation looks like a complex correction and this correction may continue for some more time.

 One of the possible corrective counts are shown on the hourly chart below. As per this chart after completing wave C down prices may move up again to complete wave (C) / (wave B in the above daily chart). Since complex corrections can take myriad of shapes, this is just one possible scenario.

Reliance Industries - Looking weak

Following is the weekly chart of reliance industries. 

 
There are a few striking points showing on this chart

1. At cycle degree (shown in purple) from Jan 2008 till March 2015,  it is possible the stock consolidated in a 4th wave triangle. The triangle is shown in yellow on the chart.

2. At primary degree, starting March 2015, the stock prices can be seen completing 5 wave impulse in August 2018 (shown in red).

3. The first leg of the downtrend may have completed in October 2018 and it is currently in bear market rally (bounce). Once the rally is complete, the stock may once again resume its downward trend.

If the point 1. above turns out right it may imply that the stock made a very major cycle degree top in August 2018. If so the ongoing correction is likely to be deep and take time to complete.

ASX200 - Topping around here?

The weekly chart of AXJO  below is self explanatory. See the red arrows on a long term parallel channel. Could be topping here. As to the Elliott wave counts, there are a few possibilities. At this point important thing is to be cautious as it could turn down.

Biogen

Biogen looks to may have completed the wave B of an ongoing correction. The below weekly chart shows the possible counts.

VISA Inc - Elliott Wave Counts

The following monthly chart for Visa Inc shows the wave counts since the bottom it made in early 2009. That bottom is assumed to be wave 2 of a larger 5 wave impulse. Intermediate degree wave 5 could have started in Feb 2016. If this wave count is correct the stock may have already completed or nearing  completion of wave 5. Also if correct this implies an extended wave 5 which can retrace back to an eventual target of around USD 75.

Netflix - Could it be nearing end of extended wave five?

In this post I am analyzing the weekly and then daily charts of Netflix . The analysis done in this chart is only one of the possible scenarios. However preposterous it may look, it meets all of Elliott wave rules and is therefore possible. The reason to present it here is that going forward extreme caution may be required to trade this stock. 

The following is the weekly chart starting Aug 2012. The main reasons that the counts presented on the chart is possible are

i) wave 3 is not the shortest

ii) Wave 4 doesn't overlap wave 2.

 

In the below daily chart the detailed possible counts are presented for this possible (not guaranteed though!!) extended wave 5 starting July 2016. 

It is also possible that Wave iii actually ended on 17 Apr 2018 (where (i) of v is shown at price level of 338.62. If so wave 5 may have completed on 21 Jun 2018 at 423.21.

 There is alternate possibility that what I am presenting as extended wave 5 is only wave 3 of larger degree count. That will become clear once correction happens. For now looking at the possibility of  extended wave 5 extreme caution is warranted.

 

Copper - Bullish short/ medium term

This post on Copper is coming after an earlier post on (17/1/2016), when it was anticipated that Copper is bottoming. There it was stipulated that the metal is undergoing correction since the lower top it made in April 2006. There is no change in this outlook. A correction can take any number of forms and hence very difficult to predict and put a count on. Still there are a couple of long term scenarios (in red and in  blue) I have marked on the chart below. Apart from this it is possible that instead of triangle it  may form undergo a flat, double flat or any other complex correction.

Coming to short/ medium term, below is the weekly chart. The upward trend in Copper seems to be intact. Here again there are numerous possible counts. The preferred count for now, assuming a zig-zag corrective pattern, is as shown on the chart.