The chart of Kotak Mahindra Bank below is self explanatory and shows possibility of a reversal. The direction for C shown on the chart is only for depiction and may take numerous paths.
The other less likely (in my view) possibility is that the stock has a minor correction and then rises to touch the trend line again before a major reversal.
Disclaimer : The counts shown are possibility only and can not be construed as trading advice.
The previous post on USD/INR was published on 7th Jan 2018 (Link here). As can be seen, I called a top there prematurely. What I still stand by from that post is that most likely wave 3 was completed in 2002 as shown. 5th waves can be quite deceptive and can prolong. Now the updated possible counts are shown on the weekly chart below.
The chart below is self explanatory and shows probable impulsive wave counts.
The other secondary possibility is that the light blue wave structure is the last extended wave 5 and the stock falls back to March 2020 lows of around 70.
In either case, there is a correction imminent, which might first take the stock to around 400. That move, if it happens, likely will give a better idea of the move ahead.
The below monthly chart captures the trend lines for the major trends of past few decades. It is observed that at the beginning of the trend, price is above the trend line. But once a trend is established, the price remain below the trend line. There are corrections along the way whenever the price rise up to touch the trend line.
This observation is important at present in S&P. As can be seen, index is trying to cross above the trend line TL4. Is it time for a correction? Or is it different this time? Calls for extreme caution.
If it is different this time and the index continues moving up above the trend line, then in my opinion that would construe a bubble. In that case the question will be - weather to trade the bubble or watch from the sidelines?
Now if it is not different this time then there are couple of options that I can think of (there sure are more. Market is after all not so predictable!!).
1) One option is that the Index completed the correction of previous trend (2008-2018) in March 2020 and has started a new up trend since then. If so going by the previous trends, this new trend will establish a new trend line. Just a hypothetical picture is shown below
