Kotak Mahindra Bank

 The chart of Kotak Mahindra Bank below is self explanatory and shows possibility of  a reversal. The direction for C shown on the chart is only for depiction and may take numerous paths. 

 The other less likely (in my view) possibility is that the stock has a minor correction and then rises to touch the trend line again before a major reversal.  

 

 

 

 

Disclaimer : The counts shown are possibility only and can not be construed as trading advice.

USD/INR - Elliott Wave counts

 The previous post on USD/INR was published on 7th Jan 2018 (Link here). As can be seen, I called a top there prematurely. What I still stand by from that post is that most likely wave 3 was completed in 2002 as shown. 5th waves can be quite deceptive and can prolong. Now the updated possible counts are shown on the weekly chart below.

 

 Disclaimer : The counts shown are possibility only and can not be construed as trading advice.

 

 

 

 

TSLA - Is this the way forward?

 The chart below is self explanatory and shows probable impulsive wave counts.

 

  

The other secondary possibility is that the light blue wave structure is the last extended wave 5 and the stock falls back to March 2020 lows of around 70. 

In either case, there is a correction imminent, which might first take the stock to around 400. That move, if it happens, likely will give a better idea of the move ahead.

S&P 500 - Trendlines

The below monthly chart captures the trend lines for the major trends of past few decades. It is observed that at the beginning of the trend, price is above the trend line. But once a trend is established, the price remain below the trend line. There are corrections along the way whenever the price rise up to touch the trend line.

This observation is important at present in S&P. As can be seen, index is trying to cross above the trend line TL4. Is it time for a correction? Or is it different this time? Calls for extreme caution.

If it is different this time and the index continues moving up above the trend line,  then in my opinion that would construe a bubble. In that case the question will be - weather to trade the bubble or watch from the sidelines?

 Now if it is not different this time then there are couple of options that I can think of (there sure are more. Market is after all not so predictable!!).

1) One option is that the Index completed the correction of previous trend (2008-2018) in March 2020 and has started a new up trend since then. If so going by the previous trends, this new trend will establish a new trend line. Just a hypothetical picture is shown below

 

 2) The other option is that the correction of the previous trend is still incomplete. A hypothetical picture for this is shown below

 

 

NSE Nifty - Time to be careful

This post is coming after the earlier post on NSE Nifty on (26/01/2020). As expected a correction started soon afterwards. The index broke the lower trend line of the  parallel channel, signifying that the whole 5 waves up move from 2009 bottom, may have completed as shown on the chart below. This may mean that the index is currently in correction mode, till a bullish scenario arises.

The following daily chart shows the move of NSE Nifty from March 2020 bottom in more detail.

The chart is showing that the index may be completing wave C of A-B-C corrective  up move and may be forming a rising wedge pattern. If correct, there is a likelihood of resumption of downward trend. However if index decisively breaks the rising wedge pattern to the upside, that would open up the bullish possibility. The downward red lines  with arrows are just depicting the direction and not actual target. In the rare case it is possible that the index breaks the low it formed in March 2020. But it's too early to say that.

Australian Index - AXJO

This post on Australian Index ASX 200 is coming after the earlier post on (21/08/2018) 

The following is the hourly chart of AXJO since the bottom made on 20th March 2020. Since then the index has risen up in 3 waves (a-b-c), with probably a triangle in wave b. If this hypothesis is correct then the index is at the risk of further downward correction. Any possibility of bullishness will open only if the index completes 5 waves to the upside (shown in blue). If it completes 5 waves to upside, then the retracement of that as shown in blue may present a buying opportunity. But until then the index may be risky.

Following is the weekly chart presenting the bearish possibilities in red and bullish in blue. But since so far the index has completed only 3 waves, since March bottom, it may be better to be cautious as the possibility of continuing bear market is very much there. 

Corrections can take numerous forms, therefore only general possible directions are shown on the chart and no elliott wave counts are shown.

Disclaimer :  The analysis presented here is for information and educational purposes only and doesn't constitute investment/ trading advice.

 

Amazing - AUDINR long term trend line

The currency pair AUDINR has been bouncing off a lower  trend line for last 33-34 years. Whats more, when it touches the trend line, that corresponds to global recession of some sort. It amazes me to no end that an obscure currency pair is reflecting the state of global economy so well..

Dow Jones Elliott Wave counts

Following Weekly, Daily and 15 minutes chart are self explanatory.

I. Elliott wave impulse structure that started in March 2009 looks to have completed in October 2018. The current price action may be wave C of the ongoing correction.
 

II. Below is the Correction in more detail.

 III. Close up and possible wave counts of possible wave C that started on 12 Feb 2020.

NSE Nifty

This post is coming after the earlier post on NSE Nifty on (15/2/2019). In that post a significant correction was anticipated. However the said head and shoulders pattern didn't materialize and the Index has gone on to make a prolonged topping pattern.

The chart below is self explanatory. 

i) The price is moving in a parallel channel since the bottom in 2008. It is now touching the upper channel.

ii) There has been a substantial increase in volume in past few months which may signify distribution. 

In conclusion Nifty may now see a significant correction. Where this would fit in Elliot wave counts will be clearer as the pattern develops. However both possibilities exist of it being either a intermediate degree (retrace of up move since bottom of 2016) or a primary degree correction (retrace of up move since bottom of 2008).