Index SOX - Could this breakout be a bull trap

Following is a monthly chart of Philadelphia semiconductor. As can be seen, prices broke out above the trend line in May 2019. However there is a possibility that the move up since November, 2008 bottom may be a 5 wave impulse of which the prices may currently be in wave (5). If this turns out right this breakout may prove to be a bull trap. However trend remains bullish till there are signs of reversal in shorter time frame. One reason for this line of thinking is a contracting triangle possibly formed at wave (4) position shown in weekly chart.

 

 MONTHLY CHART

 Weekly CHART

 

Interesting Fibonacci observation

An interesting Fibonacci occurrence is observed across several global indices. As can be seen on the charts of NSE Nifty (India), DAX (germany) and US2000 (US small cap index), the rise since the GFC bottom (made in 2008) is either 1.618 or 2.618 times the rise that occurred since the bottom made in 2002-03 till 2007 top. This may indicate that the ongoing correction is wave 4 and upon completion of this correction the global equities may have one more major leg up to complete wave 5.

NSE Nifty - Possibly forming right shoulder of bearish head and shoulders pattern

This post on NSE Nifty is coming after about one year. Refer  earlier post at NSE Nity - 6/02/18. 

NSE Nifty could be forming the right shoulder of  head and shoulders pattern in daily chart. However it is still a long way to go before confirmation. But the possibility calls for caution. What appears as the right shoulder in formation looks like a complex correction and this correction may continue for some more time.

 One of the possible corrective counts are shown on the hourly chart below. As per this chart after completing wave C down prices may move up again to complete wave (C) / (wave B in the above daily chart). Since complex corrections can take myriad of shapes, this is just one possible scenario.

Reliance Industries - Looking weak

Following is the weekly chart of reliance industries. 

 
There are a few striking points showing on this chart

1. At cycle degree (shown in purple) from Jan 2008 till March 2015,  it is possible the stock consolidated in a 4th wave triangle. The triangle is shown in yellow on the chart.

2. At primary degree, starting March 2015, the stock prices can be seen completing 5 wave impulse in August 2018 (shown in red).

3. The first leg of the downtrend may have completed in October 2018 and it is currently in bear market rally (bounce). Once the rally is complete, the stock may once again resume its downward trend.

If the point 1. above turns out right it may imply that the stock made a very major cycle degree top in August 2018. If so the ongoing correction is likely to be deep and take time to complete.