Monday 30 May 2016

USD/CNY - First phase of Bull run nearing completion?

Following is the weekly chart of USD/CNY, analyzed for the up move that started in Jan 2014. It appears like USD/CNY is making a 5 wave impulse wave pattern since then. This 5 wave pattern may be either forming wave 1 or wave A of a larger degree pattern. There is a possibility that this 5 wave pattern may be nearing completion, as per the wave counts shown. The likely targets for the completion of wave 1/A are :
  • around 6.65 - 38.2% extension of wave 0-iii
  • around 6.78 - 61.8% extension of wave 0-iii
  • around 7      - 100% extension of wave 0-iii


The important thing is that, if this analysis is correct 
  • USD/CNY is likely to start a correction soon, once this up move is complete. Likely targets between 6.65 and 7. 
  • Also the said anticipated correction is not likely to take the value below the Jan 2014 level.
  • After the anticipated correction is over, the USD/CNY is likely to resume up trend once again.

Thursday 26 May 2016

NSE Nifty - Inverse head and shoulders breakout?

It looks like Indian Index NSE Nifty may be breaking out of a inverse head and shoulders pattern. If the pattern holds the likely target is 9200. On the Elliott Wave front the index may be making a number of nested 1,2's with 3rd of some degree 3rd likely soon.


Sunday 1 May 2016

US Dollar Index - update

This is in continuation of the earlier post on (5/2/2016). There it was expected that the DXY will have more up move to complete wave (5). But now it appears that wave (5) might have completed as a truncated wave 5 on 21/1/2016 at 99.94.

Looking at the long term chart it appears like the prices are moving in a triangle pattern. Now going forward there seems to be two possibilities long term, as shown on the chart below shown in red and blue.