Saturday 9 April 2016

USDJPY - Short, medium and very long term elliott wave counts

This is in continuation of the analysis done on (25/08/2015) and (16/08/2015). So far the prices have been moving as anticipated. Going forward the short and medium term possible counts are as shown on the chart below. It looks like that the USDJPY made a top with a truncated 5th wave in August 2015. Since then the currency pair is undergoing ongoing correction which looks like forming an impulse wave down. The prices may have just completed wave iii and may bounce for wave iv. Only once all 5 waves for a are complete, a meaningful rally for wave b may ensue. But the prices appear to be in bear grip in all time frames. Any upward movements look like only releif rallies. This is also seen in the very long term chart posted below as chart-2.
 

chart-1

It is interesting to see a very long term chart of the currency pair, as it shows such clear cut impulsive Elliott wave counts in a down trend since last almost 50 years. And it appears that the bear trend is not likely to be over any time soon.

chart-2